A game of votes: Some interesting stats about Pakistan’s General Elections 2018

  • Most Popular Party? Highest Turnouts? What if most of TLP voters voted for PMLN?

With additional input by Usman Afzal Minhas.

The Election 2018 results data includes all but 9 constituencies at the National level. Analysis has only been performed on National Assembly seats.

Some important definitions:

  1. Turnout: Turnout is the percentage of total polled votes out of total registered votes, higher is good, lower is bad
  2. Rejection: Rejection is the percentage of total rejected votes out of total polled votes, lower is good, higher is bad
  3. Stars: Observations that are in the top 10th percentile (90th percentile and above) of the population dataset
  4. Problematics: Observations that are in the bottom 10th percentile (10th percentile and below) of the population dataset
  5. Poll %: Percentage of votes received to party or candidate out of total polled votes
  6. Pop %: Percentage of votes received to party or candidate out of total registered votes
  7. Seat %: Percentage of NA seats won out of total seats

Some important assumptions for statistical testing:

The population dataset for Turnout and Rejection percentages is assumed to follow a normal distribution at both the NA level and city level analysis. Turnout was found to be moderately skewed to the left and Rejection was found to be moderately skewed to the right, however for sake of simplicity we can ignore the skewness and assume a normal distribution.

Hover over each dot for constituency details.

Problematic Turnouts

Constituencies with lowest turn outs in Pakistan.

Constituency Total Registered Total Polled Turnout
NA-39 328,428 11,303 3.4415
NA-49 178,293 26,930 15.1044
NA-268 234,291 48,224 20.5830
NA-48 274,205 63,954 23.3234
NA-44 265,217 67,144 25.3166
NA-33 275,947 81,318 29.4687
NA-47 167,206 54,966 32.8732
NA-50 145,872 48,142 33.0029
NA-10 374,343 128,302 34.2739

Star Turnouts

Constituencies with highest turn outs in Pakistan.

Constituency Total Registered Total Polled Turnout
NA-222 331,872 235,340 70.9129
NA-221 242,458 166,527 68.6828
NA-98 434,072 295,087 67.9811
NA-97 437,585 288,659 65.9664
NA-52 234,508 150,692 64.2588
NA-172 357,821 229,275 64.0753
NA-188 449,098 287,493 64.0156
NA-195 275,326 174,891 63.5214
NA-187 457,525 290,288 63.4475
NA-183 335,326 211,991 63.2194

Problematic Rejections

Constituencies with highest rejected votes in Pakistan.

Constituency Total Polled Total Rejected Rejection Percentage
NA-260 143,214 13,597 9.4942
NA-197 165,333 15,340 9.2782
NA-261 120,848 10,255 8.4859
NA-269 124,165 10,505 8.4605
NA-205 171,090 13,458 7.8660
NA-202 138,608 10,727 7.7391
NA-259 159,148 11,508 7.2310
NA-257 126,311 8,339 6.6020
NA-270 93,796 6,152 6.5589
NA-203 112,702 7,375 6.5438

Star Rejections

Constituencies with lowest rejected votes in Pakistan.

Constituency Total Polled Total Rejected Rejection Percentage
NA-125 250,263 0 0.0000
NA-37 79,049 37 0.0468
NA-54 118,679 932 0.7853
NA-53 176,456 1,480 0.8387
NA-48 63,954 611 0.9554
NA-155 239,343 2,719 1.1360
NA-247 219,037 2,591 1.1829
NA-57 326,600 3,908 1.1966
NA-133 192,878 2,347 1.2168

Province Wise Analysis

Province Total Registered Total Polled Total Rejected Turnout % Rejection %
Punjab 60,646,558 34,321,422 910,492 56.59 2.65
Sindh 22,392,999 10,554,507 408,520 47.13 3.87
KPK 17,600,839 7,530,245 241,505 42.78 3.21
Balochistan 4,300,040 1,854,889 104,357 43.14 5.63
Pakistan 104,940,436 54,261,063 1,664,874 51.71 3.07

National average of Turnout was 51.8% and Rejection was 3.1%. All provinces other than Punjab had lower Turnout and higher Rejection than the National average. Sindh was close to National average in Turnout and KPK was close to National average in Rejection.

City Wise Analysis

City Total Registered Total Polled Total Valid Votes Total Rejected Turnout % Rejection %
Karachi 8,108,315 3,254,715 3,199,303 55,412 40.1% 1.7%
Lahore 4,470,269 2,370,247 2,328,974 42,273 53.0% 1.8%
Faisalabad 4,042,407 2,306,536 2,253,420 53,119 57.1% 2.3%
Gujranwala 2,776,851 1,495,346 1,457,363 37,983 53.9% 2.5%
Rawalpindi 2,768,636 1,515,515 1,482,734 32,751 54.7% 2.2%
Multan 2,556,140 1,385,700 1,358,288 27,412 54.2% 2.0%
Rahim Yar Khan 2,425,998 1,368,099 1,331,773 36,308 56.4% 2.7%
Sialkot 2,334,498 1,301,654 1,264,830 36,623 55.8% 2.8%
Sarghoda 2,282,913 1,303,811 1,270,014 33,797 57.1% 2.6%
Muzaffargarh 2,030,891 1,229,114 1,184,831 44,283 60.5% 3.6%
Gujrat 1,913,648 957,636 929,469 28,167 50.0% 2.9%
Bahwalpur 1,881,622 1,073,045 1,043,746 29,299 57.0% 2.7%
Kasur 1,847,712 1,116,767 1,084,188 32,579 60.4% 2.9%
Okara 1,739,098 1,012,166 985,804 26,362 58.2% 2.6%
Sheikhupura 1,701,429 974,871 949,737 25,134 57.3% 2.6%
Peshawar 1,693,386 715,470 703,477 21,993 42.3% 3.1%

In the top 10 cities, Karachi had the worst Turnout (40.1%) whereas Muzaffargarh had the worst Rejection (3.6%).

Top 10 Parties in Pakistan

Party Total Votes Total Seats Poll % Seat %
Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf 16408879 116 30.90% 43.00%
Pakistan Muslim League (N) 12595438 64 23.70% 23.70%
Pakistan Peoples Party Parliamentarians 6849586 43 12.90% 15.90%
Independent 5894539 13 11.10% 4.80%
Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal Pakistan 2341685 13 4.40% 4.80%
Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan 2138038 4.00% 0.00%
Grand Democratic Alliance 1257351 2 2.40% 0.70%
Awami National Party 790038 1 1.50% 0.40%
Muttahida Qaumi Movement Pakistan 729767 6 1.40% 2.20%
Pakistan Muslim League 515258 4 1.00% 1.50%

PTI remains the most popular party with 30.9% of polled votes going to their camp resulting in a 43% representation in the parliament. PMLN stands at 23.7% for both Poll % and Seat %. Independents showed a high Poll % depicting high popularity but could only win 4.8% of seats in the parliament.

Most Popular Candidate – Candidates with Highest % of Polled Votes

Constituency Candidate Party Candidate Votes Total Registered Votes Total Polled Votes % of Total Polled Votes % of Total Registered Votes
NA-231 Syed Ayaz Ali Shah Serazi PPP 129980 348864 160109 81% 37%
NA-232 Shams un Nisa PPP 152691 440329 191166 80% 35%
NA-203 Mir Amer Ali Khan Magsi PPP 80026 313641 112702 71% 26%
NA-95 Imran Ahmed Khan Niazi PTI 163538 465740 252872 65% 35%
NA-217 Roshanuddin Junejo PPP 102361 345442 164391 62% 30%
NA-96 AMJID ALI KHAN PTI 157422 450741 261189 60% 35%
NA-208 Nafisa Shah PPP 107847 356243 181220 60% 30%
NA-223 Makhdoom Jameel Uz Zaman PPP 109960 342906 185379 59% 32%
NA-30 Sher Ali Arbab PTI 73781 308891 125547 59% 24%
NA-142 Riaz ul Haq PMLN 140733 421873 239652 59% 33%

Effect of TLP on PMLN

(What if PMLN got 60% of TLP votes and PTI got 40% of TLP Votes)

Constituency PTI PMLN TLP Actual Winner PMLN + 60% of TLP votes
NA-87 165618 157453 44130 PTI PMLN
NA-108 112740 111529 8075 PTI PMLN
NA-118 63818 61413 49345 PTI PMLN
NA-131 84313 83633 9780 PTI PMLN
NA-140 124621 124385 15500 PTI PMLN

There seems to be a lot of controversy regarding TLP and it’s effect on PMLN’s vote bank. According to the stats, if most (60%) of TLP voters had voted for PMLN, PMLN would have won 5 extra seats.

Effect of rejected votes on PMLN

(What if PMLN got 60% of rejected votes and PTI got 40% of rejected Votes)

Constituency PTI PMLN Rejected Actual Winner PMLN + 60% of rejected votes
NA-131 84313 83633 3835 PTI PMLN
NA-140 124621 124385 7453 PTI PMLN

There also seems to be a lot of controversy regarding rejected votes and it’s effect on PMLN’s vote bank. According to the stats, if most (60%) of rejected voters had voted for PMLN, PMLN would have won 2 extra seats.

Effect of rejected votes on PTI

(What if PTI got 60% of rejected votes and PMLN got 40% of rejected Votes)

Constituency PTI PMLN Rejected Actual Winner PTI + 60% of rejected votes
NA-89 113422 114245 6869 PMLN PTI
NA-91 110246 110525 6733 PMLN PTI
NA-100 75559 76415 7197 PMLN PTI

On the other hand, according to the stats, if most (60%) of rejected voters had voted for PTI, PTI would have won 3 extra seats.

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Waqas Ahmed

Waqas Ahmed

Waqas Ahmed is Editor, Digital Media, at Daily Pakistan Global. You can reach him at waqas@dailypakistan.com.pk