What does a Trump presidency mean for the world?

As the newly elected US President Donald Trump has stood upon a stance that he is the president of all Americans and has pledged to bring the jobs back to America. This could be a bad news for Asia as it is the primary manufacturing hub of the world. If the newly elect rolls off the US interests in the region, he will surely have to expect China to get the full benefit of this loophole and take up the position of chief power broker.

The United States and China will have to focus more on their bilateral trade. If both the countries failed to do so, the bilateral trade will become the biggest source of tension for them. If the US imposes extra trade tariffs especially on the electronics sector it would hurt the Chinese exporters which would result in tit for tat, the same trade barriers would be imposed by the Chinese.

As far as the Japan is concerned, US and Japan have signed Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). The sole interest of Japan for signing this partnership is to boost up its GDP. On the contrary, trump argues that Japan should shoulder more of the costs for its national security. If we analyse trump’s arguments regarding Japan, it clearly indicates that Japan will have to increase its defence spending. By the increase in the defence spending, Japan’s budget deficit will also increase even further. Most importantly victory of Donald Trump signals the end to TPP which Japan would not want at any cost.

In the case of Europe, even if trump proves to be a moderate president, even than his stance “America First” will be a great headache for the European leaders. Europe is already engulfed in multiple crises and has also lost the trust of the most trustworthy international ally in the recent times. It is the need of the time that the region’s leaders should prepare themselves for the US to change from a vital partner to a problem manager. Europe is foreseeing a partnership with the US famously known as Trans-Atlantic Trade & Investment Partnership (TTIP), whose concluding prospects are much poor, in the light of trump’s anti-trade platform, the position of deal stands no chance of being agreed.

As with the whole world, trump’s presidency will be seen with a suspicion across the Middle East. If we keep the nuclear agreement with Iran aside, its immediate impact will be on our allies. It will strengthen their fear that the US is disengaging from the region and their interests. Trump has taken a stance that he will ban Muslims from entering the US. This will put the relations between US and MENA region on the worst footing. However ultimately the foreign policy of US, particularly in the Middle East, is very unlikely to be among Trump’s key priorities.US fight against IS is highly dependent on the success of ongoing operations. US-Russia relations and coordination will leave a greater impact on future policies. US-Russian operation in Syria & Iraq may also get affected of any uncertain outcomes of operations.

The relationship with Latin America is unpredictable, but the fact is that the region does not pose a geopolitical threat to the US. In this region Mexico has the most to lose if trump acts upon his stance to pull out US of NAFTA. This is because Mexican is export based & if US pulls out of NAFTA, it will rather kill the Mexican economy. However putting an end to NAFTA will also be unacceptable for the US exporters. The revision of trade and bilateral agreements with the commercial partners could affect Brazilian exporters as well because of the fact that the US is the 2nd largest destination market of Brazil.

In the case of US, the major concern of new administration will be tax and entitlement reform to deregulate the extractive industries. To address the demands of his major support base, trump will have to significantly increase spending in the infrastructures. If trump acts upon his promise to raise commercial protectionism, it will result in a business environment for US based companies. The commercial protectionism could pose a threat to the integrity of current supply chains and this will deter the investors who are looking to expand operations in the US.

The winning of trump has been seen with suspicion in the whole world. This is because trump might turn out to be a double-edged sword for the global growth. His preference for the policy easing will help to stimulate the world’s largest economy; the wider benefits will be undermined, if his aggressive protectionist rhetoric is backed up by action. Over a longer period of time trump’s policies might also threaten the US position of the global financial hegemon. After the US election results, a surge in the gold prices was seen which suggests that the investors are already mitigating other alternatives. It seems like trumps policy is based on isolationism. But it is uncertain till now. As soon as he takes over the office his actions will speak louder than his words. After his resuming the office only then something could be said with certainty before that it cannot.

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Muhammad Husnain

Muhammad Husnain

Muhammad Husnain is a student of Political Science at Quaid-i-Azam University