ISLAMABAD – The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) has released its seasonal outlook for the Hindu Kush, Karakoram and Himalayan (HKH) region for the 2026 monsoon, forecasting above-normal temperatures that could accelerate glacier melt and increase the risk of flooding.
According to the PMD, normal monsoon rainfall is expected in Gilgit-Baltistan, Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK), and upper Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
However, temperatures in the northern mountainous regions are likely to remain above average, which could speed up the melting of snowpacks and glaciers. The department warned that this may lead to higher river flows and increase the risk of localised flooding during the monsoon season.
The outlook also cautioned that short-duration but intense rainfall events could trigger flash floods, landslides and debris flows. It further warned of an increased risk of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) in vulnerable mountainous areas.
The PMD advised residents living near rivers, streams and glacial valleys to remain vigilant. It also urged relevant authorities to closely monitor weather conditions and flood risks, while appealing to the public to follow the latest weather updates and official advisories.
In a separate report covering the April-to-June pre-monsoon season, the PMD said rainfall across Pakistan was 13% above normal during the period.
The department recorded an average rainfall of 73 millimetres nationwide during the pre-monsoon season. Punjab received 23% more rainfall than normal, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 15%, Azad Kashmir 10%, and Balochistan 10% above average. Rainfall in Sindh remained close to normal, while Gilgit-Baltistan recorded 17% below-normal pre-monsoon rainfall.
