Dr Tahir ul Qadri is emerging as the new pivot of politics in Pakistan. He is a unifying figure amongst bitter rivals: PPP, PTI, and PMLQ. The release of the judicial report on Model Town massacre has resonated with all the main opposition parties, which seem eager to exploit the prevailing conditions by accepting him as their Imam. Being a populist cleric with an enormous, disciplined force of followers, he can be the spirit behind ‘grand opposition alliance’ in the run-up to 2018 general elections.
Notwithstanding whether the country can afford any adventurism at the time, anarchist forces – both internal and external – are desperate for results even by relying on religious pressure groups or political parties.
The Faizabad sit-in by the largest religious sect of Pakistan, Ahl-e-Sunnat, has already worsened the image of Pakistan abroad while deepening divisions in society. The populist cleric further lowered the standard of political discourse with his peculiar vocabulary echoing for 20 days. The cause of sit-in may be undisputed but the tactics of protest were undoubtedly dangerous.
Imran Khan’s PTI might not formally join Qadri-inspired grand alliance owing to concern for damage control. He would not like to share podium and vote bank with rival PPP whom he lambasts over corruption and incompetence. Majority of the PTI followers are young and broadminded, thus Imran Khan may consider religious symbolism of Qadri harmful for the party. On the other hand, opposition to the PPP leadership has been his prominent talking point. Going into an alliance with Syed Asif Ali Zardari contradicts Imran’s manifesto against corruption and incompetence. His alliance with Maulana Sami-ul-Haq, a veteran religious cleric from Nowshehra, has already raised eyebrows in the public. The arrangement will only be limited to the KPK.
For any political party, Punjab-centric politics is a compulsion in electoral politics given its larger share of seats in the National Assembly. Being the second largest stakeholder in Punjab, Tehreek-i-Insaf can’t afford to lose the ground by entering into an alliance that hurts its identity.
Pakistan Peoples’ Party, once the most popular party of Pakistan, is striving hard to re-emerge. Asif Zardari, famous for his political moves, is eager to join an alliance in the province. The Bhuttos’ party is working hand in hand with Dr Qadri, a sign of utter desperation. The repercussions can be adverse for PPP can lose its voters especially in the process. Historically, PPP has proven to be the only party to contest election against religious hardliners before the emergence of PTI. PMLN, on the other hand, has always won elections with the support of religious segments in certain key districts.
Not only does Dr Qadri seek vengeance, but also has long-term political ambitions. His demonstrations against PPP and PMLN were massive and emphatic. He vividly exerted that his aim is to bring change in Pakistan during both the sit-ins in 2013 and 2014. He will not play for nothing. His allies will have to bargain as he holds the key to success for both short-term as well as long-term ambitions of all the PMLN’s challengers. The short-term ambition is either to deprive the ruling party of getting a majority in the upper house, the Senate, or to get the assemblies dissolved afore senate elections in March 2018. The long-term ambition is to form the forthcoming government by winning the elections in 2018.
Amidst the rise of the religious populism, PPP seems to believe that it would be able to defeat PTI and PMLN in forthcoming elections by forming an alliance with Dr. Qadri in Punjab, but the desire to reign is the only conflict between PPP and Dr Qadri. He has innumerably pledged his followers to bring a revolution in Pakistan. It would be extremely difficult for the political partners to trust Dr Qadri after the elections. Asif Zardari would never let Dr Qadri dominate the alliance, for he is famous using the people at the right time. This joint-venture would only strengthen the religious forces or PTI, if it can manage to strike a balance between support on issues and blind following.
Pakistan is on a dangerous path. The indiscretion of political leaders in Pakistan will have devastating consequences for governance and economy both. The undesirable precedent of sacking elected governments or government personnel by conducting sit-ins has already been set. The trend must be defied, as it will only worsen the state of democracy in the country. The opportunists on the stage are too excited to understand that tomorrow it could be there turn to face the angry religion-inspired mob.
Since Peoples’ Party and Pakistan Muslim League Quaid-i-Azam have already been tried and tested, the presence of Maulana Qadri may help make them relevant again. Minhajul Quran itself is nothing but a one-man show as Dr Qadri has not been a team player either. Even if Pakistan does not see hung parliament after 2018 election, shaky alliances can’t be ruled out. Spoiler alert: the PMLN always performs better on the opposition benches. If Dr Qadri can pull off the grand alliance, then Nawaz league will settle for a very disruptive role.
