KARACHI – Pakistan’s economy is showing signs of steady recovery, and global analysts are taking notice. S&P Global Market Intelligence released its latest forecasts, largely echoing the State Bank of Pakistan’s projections.
The economic outlook received major boost as S&P Global Market Intelligence’s latest forecasts closely mirrored projections from State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), signalling easing inflation, strengthening growth, and improving external stability.
Finance Minister’s Adviser Khurram Schehzad said on Tuesday that S&P’s macroeconomic projections validate SBP’s assessment of economy. According to S&P, inflation is expected to average 5.1% in 2026 and rise modestly to 5.6% in 2027, pointing to contained price pressures. This compares with SBP’s inflation outlook of 5%–7% over the next two years, placing S&P’s estimates squarely within the central bank’s projected range.
On external front, S&P projects Pakistan’s current account deficit at 0.5% of GDP in 2026, widening to 1.3% in 2027. The SBP, meanwhile, expects the deficit in FY26 to remain between 0% and 1% of GDP. Schehzad noted that S&P’s FY26 estimate is fully aligned with the SBP’s outlook, while the projection for the following year is only slightly higher.
The upbeat assessment follows strong signals from the central bank. On Monday, SBP Governor Jameel Ahmed struck an optimistic tone while unveiling an upgraded economic outlook. He revised the FY26 GDP growth forecast upward to 3.75%–4.75% and announced that Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves are expected to climb to an all-time high of $20.2 billion by the end of December 2026.
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