A game of votes: Some interesting stats about Pakistan's General Elections 2018

11:12 PM | 28 Jul, 2018
A game of votes: Some interesting stats about Pakistan's General Elections 2018
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With additional input by Usman Afzal Minhas.

The Election 2018 results data includes all but 9 constituencies at the National level. Analysis has only been performed on National Assembly seats.

Some important definitions:

  1. Turnout: Turnout is the percentage of total polled votes out of total registered votes, higher is good, lower is bad
  2. Rejection: Rejection is the percentage of total rejected votes out of total polled votes, lower is good, higher is bad
  3. Stars: Observations that are in the top 10th percentile (90th percentile and above) of the population dataset
  4. Problematics: Observations that are in the bottom 10th percentile (10th percentile and below) of the population dataset
  5. Poll %: Percentage of votes received to party or candidate out of total polled votes
  6. Pop %: Percentage of votes received to party or candidate out of total registered votes
  7. Seat %: Percentage of NA seats won out of total seats

Some important assumptions for statistical testing:

The population dataset for Turnout and Rejection percentages is assumed to follow a normal distribution at both the NA level and city level analysis. Turnout was found to be moderately skewed to the left and Rejection was found to be moderately skewed to the right, however for sake of simplicity we can ignore the skewness and assume a normal distribution.

Hover over each dot for constituency details.

Problematic Turnouts

Constituencies with lowest turn outs in Pakistan.

ConstituencyTotal RegisteredTotal PolledTurnout
NA-39328,42811,3033.4415
NA-49178,29326,93015.1044
NA-268234,29148,22420.5830
NA-48274,20563,95423.3234
NA-44265,21767,14425.3166
NA-33275,94781,31829.4687
NA-47167,20654,96632.8732
NA-50145,87248,14233.0029
NA-10374,343128,30234.2739

Star Turnouts

Constituencies with highest turn outs in Pakistan.

ConstituencyTotal RegisteredTotal PolledTurnout
NA-222331,872235,34070.9129
NA-221242,458166,52768.6828
NA-98434,072295,08767.9811
NA-97437,585288,65965.9664
NA-52234,508150,69264.2588
NA-172357,821229,27564.0753
NA-188449,098287,49364.0156
NA-195275,326174,89163.5214
NA-187457,525290,28863.4475
NA-183335,326211,99163.2194

Problematic Rejections

Constituencies with highest rejected votes in Pakistan.

ConstituencyTotal PolledTotal RejectedRejection Percentage
NA-260143,21413,5979.4942
NA-197165,33315,3409.2782
NA-261120,84810,2558.4859
NA-269124,16510,5058.4605
NA-205171,09013,4587.8660
NA-202138,60810,7277.7391
NA-259159,14811,5087.2310
NA-257126,3118,3396.6020
NA-27093,7966,1526.5589
NA-203112,7027,3756.5438

Star Rejections

Constituencies with lowest rejected votes in Pakistan.

ConstituencyTotal PolledTotal RejectedRejection Percentage
NA-125250,26300.0000
NA-3779,049370.0468
NA-54118,6799320.7853
NA-53176,4561,4800.8387
NA-4863,9546110.9554
NA-155239,3432,7191.1360
NA-247219,0372,5911.1829
NA-57326,6003,9081.1966
NA-133192,8782,3471.2168

Province Wise Analysis

ProvinceTotal RegisteredTotal PolledTotal RejectedTurnout %Rejection %
Punjab60,646,55834,321,422910,49256.592.65
Sindh22,392,99910,554,507408,52047.133.87
KPK17,600,8397,530,245241,50542.783.21
Balochistan4,300,0401,854,889104,35743.145.63
Pakistan104,940,43654,261,0631,664,87451.713.07

National average of Turnout was 51.8% and Rejection was 3.1%. All provinces other than Punjab had lower Turnout and higher Rejection than the National average. Sindh was close to National average in Turnout and KPK was close to National average in Rejection.

City Wise Analysis

CityTotal RegisteredTotal PolledTotal Valid VotesTotal RejectedTurnout %Rejection %
Karachi8,108,3153,254,7153,199,30355,41240.1%1.7%
Lahore4,470,2692,370,2472,328,97442,27353.0%1.8%
Faisalabad4,042,4072,306,5362,253,42053,11957.1%2.3%
Gujranwala2,776,8511,495,3461,457,36337,98353.9%2.5%
Rawalpindi2,768,6361,515,5151,482,73432,75154.7%2.2%
Multan2,556,1401,385,7001,358,28827,41254.2%2.0%
Rahim Yar Khan2,425,9981,368,0991,331,77336,30856.4%2.7%
Sialkot2,334,4981,301,6541,264,83036,62355.8%2.8%
Sarghoda2,282,9131,303,8111,270,01433,79757.1%2.6%
Muzaffargarh2,030,8911,229,1141,184,83144,28360.5%3.6%
Gujrat1,913,648957,636929,46928,16750.0%2.9%
Bahwalpur1,881,6221,073,0451,043,74629,29957.0%2.7%
Kasur1,847,7121,116,7671,084,18832,57960.4%2.9%
Okara1,739,0981,012,166985,80426,36258.2%2.6%
Sheikhupura1,701,429974,871949,73725,13457.3%2.6%
Peshawar1,693,386715,470703,47721,99342.3%3.1%

In the top 10 cities, Karachi had the worst Turnout (40.1%) whereas Muzaffargarh had the worst Rejection (3.6%).

Top 10 Parties in Pakistan

PartyTotal VotesTotal SeatsPoll %Seat %
Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf1640887911630.90%43.00%
Pakistan Muslim League (N)125954386423.70%23.70%
Pakistan Peoples Party Parliamentarians68495864312.90%15.90%
Independent58945391311.10%4.80%
Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal Pakistan2341685134.40%4.80%
Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan21380384.00%0.00%
Grand Democratic Alliance125735122.40%0.70%
Awami National Party79003811.50%0.40%
Muttahida Qaumi Movement Pakistan72976761.40%2.20%
Pakistan Muslim League51525841.00%1.50%

PTI remains the most popular party with 30.9% of polled votes going to their camp resulting in a 43% representation in the parliament. PMLN stands at 23.7% for both Poll % and Seat %. Independents showed a high Poll % depicting high popularity but could only win 4.8% of seats in the parliament.

Most Popular Candidate - Candidates with Highest % of Polled Votes

ConstituencyCandidatePartyCandidate VotesTotal Registered VotesTotal Polled Votes% of Total Polled Votes% of Total Registered Votes
NA-231Syed Ayaz Ali Shah SeraziPPP12998034886416010981%37%
NA-232Shams un NisaPPP15269144032919116680%35%
NA-203Mir Amer Ali Khan MagsiPPP8002631364111270271%26%
NA-95Imran Ahmed Khan Niazi PTI16353846574025287265%35%
NA-217Roshanuddin JunejoPPP10236134544216439162%30%
NA-96AMJID ALI KHAN PTI15742245074126118960%35%
NA-208Nafisa ShahPPP10784735624318122060%30%
NA-223Makhdoom Jameel Uz ZamanPPP10996034290618537959%32%
NA-30Sher Ali Arbab PTI7378130889112554759%24%
NA-142Riaz ul Haq PMLN14073342187323965259%33%

Effect of TLP on PMLN

(What if PMLN got 60% of TLP votes and PTI got 40% of TLP Votes)

Constituency PTI PMLNTLPActual Winner PMLN + 60% of TLP votes
NA-8716561815745344130 PTI PMLN
NA-1081127401115298075 PTI PMLN
NA-118638186141349345 PTI PMLN
NA-13184313836339780 PTI PMLN
NA-14012462112438515500 PTI PMLN

There seems to be a lot of controversy regarding TLP and it's effect on PMLN's vote bank. According to the stats, if most (60%) of TLP voters had voted for PMLN, PMLN would have won 5 extra seats.

Effect of rejected votes on PMLN

(What if PMLN got 60% of rejected votes and PTI got 40% of rejected Votes)

Constituency PTI PMLNRejectedActual Winner PMLN + 60% of rejected votes
NA-13184313836333835 PTI PMLN
NA-1401246211243857453 PTI PMLN

There also seems to be a lot of controversy regarding rejected votes and it's effect on PMLN's vote bank. According to the stats, if most (60%) of rejected voters had voted for PMLN, PMLN would have won 2 extra seats.

Effect of rejected votes on PTI

(What if PTI got 60% of rejected votes and PMLN got 40% of rejected Votes)

Constituency PTI PMLNRejectedActual Winner PTI + 60% of rejected votes
NA-891134221142456869 PMLN PTI
NA-911102461105256733 PMLN PTI
NA-10075559764157197 PMLN PTI

On the other hand, according to the stats, if most (60%) of rejected voters had voted for PTI, PTI would have won 3 extra seats.