Why some states collapse and others don’t?
Resilience of some states is a function of continuous adaptive institutional change. Therefore, some states are more likely to collapse when adaptive institutional change stagnates. After the Libyan example and Arab Spring in general, Middle East scholars are questioning basic assumptions of their sub-field. The post-Arab Spring literature suggests a similar structural explanation for the Arab Spring: Regimes that had inflexible political structures were more likely to collapse, whereas regimes that had room to maneuver institutionally (i.e., the monarchies) or had a strong nationalistic base of rule (i.e., Iran) were more likely to survive.
Also, ‘the regional security complex theory’ is the best theoretical framework to analyze formations and politics in Libya before and after the Arab Spring.
The security patterns in Libya within the Middle East security complex before the Arab Spring was the determinant factor. Second, the Arab Spring and the revolution and NATO intervention in Libya affected this security architecture. And third, it also has different implications for regional security and sub-complexes of the Middle East in the post-Arab Spring era.
Libya’s revolution was unique among the Arab Spring uprisings for its
totality. Its elections were also unique for their outcome. Its case is very different from Syria, also in terms of religion, population and economy.
Almost all Arab countries faced challenges after Arab Spring but the insecure and unstable situation in Libya after the revolution affected both the “Maghreb sub-complex and the Middle Eastern security complex.” The lack of central control paved the way for the terrorist groups to gain ground.
Buzan’s security complexes are opposed to change and general anarchy. The ‘external structure’ of the security complex ensures the avoidance of huge changes in a traditional security complex.
The conclusion is: Autocracies cannot rely on force alone to survive – they also need to engage in adaptive institutional change.
