Pakistan is preparing for a diverse and potentially impactful monsoon season in 2025, with varying levels of rainfall expected across the country between June and September, according to data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF).
Regional Outlook
The northern and northeastern regions — including Islamabad, Peshawar, and Faisalabad — are projected to receive moderate to heavy rainfall. Islamabad may see as much as 893 mm of rain, while Peshawar and Faisalabad could receive around 202 mm and 326 mm respectively.
In contrast, the outlook for central and southern areas such as Nawabshah and southwestern Balochistan is drier, with rainfall totals forecasted at around 165 mm. Overall, most parts of Pakistan are expected to receive between 100 and 500 mm of rain, with the northeastern corridor likely to receive up to 1,000 mm.
Seasonal Highlights
July is predicted to be the wettest month of the season. Rainfall is expected to taper slightly in August and September, but will still remain significant, particularly in the northern and central regions.
The rainfall pattern is expected to be normal to slightly above normal in many areas, especially in the north and northeast. Anomaly maps show light green zones indicating areas that may see higher-than-average precipitation.
Potential Impact
The rainfall could bring much-needed relief for water reservoirs and benefit agricultural activities in northern Pakistan. However, the forecast also raises concerns over flash flooding and urban inundation, particularly in Islamabad and surrounding areas.
Conversely, the lower rainfall predicted in the southern regions could prolong drought conditions, maintaining water scarcity concerns in those areas.
As the monsoon approaches, authorities are advising preparedness for both excess rainfall in flood-prone areas and water management strategies in drier zones.
