KARACHI – State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) projected current account surplus for the fiscal year 2024-25 (FY25) amid positive momentum for country’s external sector. This optimistic outlook is supported by a rise in worker remittances, which central bank expects to hit $38 billion.
SBP Governor Jameel Ahmed expressed cautious optimism over country’s GDP growth target of 4.2% for the fiscal year 2025-26, describing it as achievable yet challenging due to risks in sectors like agriculture.
He said the detailed economic outlook will come in July, covering key areas including GDP growth, inflation, current account status, and foreign exchange reserves.
SBP expects industrial and services sectors to be the primary drivers of growth, supported by strong import volumes, a rebound in automobile sales, higher capacity utilization, and improved employment sentiment. The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) has remained above the critical 50 mark since December 2024, signaling expansion.
Debt repayments totaling $25.8 billion for FY25 are nearly complete, with only $400 million outstanding. Similar repayment levels are anticipated for FY26, with more updates expected during the upcoming Monetary Policy Committee meeting.
SBP forecasts a current account surplus for FY25, underpinned by stronger external buffers. Worker remittances are expected to rise sharply to $38 billion, up from $31.3 billion last year, driven by a formalization of remittance channels. The SBP is collaborating with banks and government stakeholders to encourage the continuation of this trend.
A recent increase in Open Market Operations (OMO) stock was attributed to higher currency circulation during Eid and a temporary lag between debt repayments and incoming foreign inflows. These levels are expected to normalize soon.
The central bank will also transfer Rs 2.4 trillion in profits to the government early in FY26, pending audit and board approval, in line with the revised SBP Act mandating annual profit transfers.
Governor Ahmed reaffirmed that State Bank remains on track to meet the IMF’s June target for Net International Reserves, having already exceeded the December 2024 goal. The bank’s baseline projection for global oil prices stands firm at $75 per barrel.
SBP holds Interest Rate at 11%, flags risks from Budget-driven Imports
