STOCKHOLM – The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) says in its annual assessment for 2024 that India now possesses more nuclear weapons than Pakistan.
The SIPRI report, which assesses the state of armaments, disarmament, and international security, ranks the United States as having the most nuclear warheads, followed by Russia, the United Kingdom, France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Israel.
The report highlights that, amid deteriorating geopolitical relations, nuclear weapons have become increasingly prominent, with an uptick in both their number and types as states deepen their reliance on nuclear deterrence. The nuclear-armed states have continued to modernize their arsenals, and several deployed new nuclear-armed or nuclear-capable weapon systems in 2023.
SIPRI’s research noted that, as of January 2024, approximately 9,585 out of 12,121 warheads were in military stockpiles for potential use. Of these, 3,904 warheads were deployed with missiles and aircraft — an increase of 60 from January 2023. Around 2,100 of these warheads were maintained in a state of high operational alert on ballistic missiles.
Nearly all of these high-alert warheads belong to Russia or the US. However, for the first time, China is believed to have some warheads on high operational alert.
SIPRI Director Dan Smith expressed concern over this trend, stating, “While the global total of nuclear warheads continues to fall as Cold War-era weapons are gradually dismantled, regrettably, we continue to see year-on-year increases in the number of operational nuclear warheads.”
The report further states that Russia and the US possess almost 90% of all nuclear weapons. Both countries are dismantling over 1,200 retired warheads from military service. SIPRI estimates that China’s nuclear arsenal increased from 410 warheads in January 2023 to 500 in January 2024.
The UK is expected to grow its warhead stockpile, while France is developing a third-generation nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine (SSBN), a new air-launched cruise missile, and upgrading existing systems.
India and North Korea are pursuing the capability to deploy multiple warheads on ballistic missiles. India’s nuclear arsenal slightly expanded in 2023, with a growing emphasis on longer-range weapons capable of reaching targets throughout China. India also continued to develop new types of nuclear delivery systems last year. The report put India’s ‘stored’ nuclear warheads at 172 in January this year while the number for Pakistan was 170.
North Korea is estimated to have around 50 warheads and enough fissile material to reach up to 90 warheads, both significant increases over the estimates for January 2023. Israel is believed to be modernizing its nuclear arsenal and upgrading its plutonium production reactor site at Dimona.
“We are now in one of the most dangerous periods in human history,” said Smith. “There are numerous sources of instability — political rivalries, economic inequalities, ecological disruption, an accelerating arms race. The abyss is beckoning, and it is time for the great powers to step back and reflect. Preferably together.”
