Pakistan is expected to receive intense rainfall, face scarcity of water, brave the loss of glaciers and endure other extreme weather events in the near future, says a report published by an eight-nation organization.
The assessment came out on Monday but it paints a very bleak picture for the country as it says that Pakistan will expect more intense rainfall events and a potential shift in the seasonal availability of rainfall.
Titled ‘Water, Ice, Society, Ecosystems in the Hindu Kush Himalaya,’ the report highlights that the impacts of global warming on the glaciers, snow, and permafrost in the Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region, including those in Pakistan, are ‘unprecedented’ and largely irreversible.
International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) – the organization which furnished the report – said in the findings that Pakistan’s glaciers are losing mass at an alarming rate, the country is projected to experience an uncertain increase in precipitation in the near future and its coastal areas would be more vulnerable to flooding and erosion.
Another ignored but important fallout of global warming relates to the increase in sea level and for Pakistan, the report confirms that the country’s coastline is projected to rise continuously over the next decades aided by an increased contribution of meltwater.
“This means that coastal areas, including its biggest city, Karachi, will be more vulnerable to flooding and erosion,” the report alarmed.
The 2022 floods of Pakistan have also been quoted and the report explains that ‘compound events’ were behind the devastation as several factors coincided and led to cascading risks i.e high temperature that causes rapid snowmelt simultaneously with high rainfall which resulted in 2022 summer floods in Pakistan.
The report also mentions the impacts of climatic change on species. For instance, it says that a total of 14 species of butterflies have disappeared from the coniferous forests of Murree Hills and its adjacent areas in Pakistan.
The report has largely focused on Hindu Kush Himalaya and for this region, it says glaciers across the region can lose up to 80% of their present volume.
“This is due to a combination of factors, including rising temperatures and changes in precipitation patterns,” ICIMOD mentioned in its assessment.
Philippus Wester, an environmental scientist and lead author of the report also warned that ‘we’re losing the glaciers, and we’re losing them in 100 years’’ time.
The loss of glaciers is now more instant than ever and estimates say that it was 65% rapid in the 2010s in comparison to the 2000s in HKH.
What should move the policymakers towards action is the fact that the region is expected to lose 30% to 50% of glacial ice by 2100 at 1.5℃ of heat, while it will likely hit ‘peak water’ by mid-century followed by shortages.
The organization – comprising Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, China, India, Myanmar, Nepal, and Pakistan – added that these changes could lead to a decrease in water availability and an increase in flooding and landslides.
Moreover, it has also been revealed that at 1.5℃ or 2℃ of warming above preindustrial temperatures, glaciers across the entire Hindu Kush Himalaya region stretching 3,500 km will lose 30% to 50% of their volume by 2100.
The report has clarified that the location of the glacier dictates its melting pace. It has been informed that at the current 3℃ of warming, glaciers in the Eastern Himalayas, which includes Nepal and Bhutan, will lose up to 75% of their ice. If the warming spikes to 4℃, the loss of ice rises to 80%.
Livelihoods at risk
Global warming is poised to affect the livelihoods of the people, disrupting economic activities as highlighted in the report.
It states that water flows in the region’s 12 river basins, including the Ganges, Indus, and Mekong, is likely to peak around mid-century, with consequences for over 1.6 billion people who depend on this supply.
“We’ve had … huge numbers of yak deaths because during summer they go to higher pastures,” said report co-author Amina Maharjan, adding that if the snow falls too soon, the entire area is covered in snow and they don’t have grass to graze.
Although the report paints a gloomy picture, it also highlights the measures being taken at the state level. For instance, it says China is working to increase the country’s water supplies and Pakistan is installing early warning systems for glacial lake outburst floods.
The report concludes that the future scenarios paint an alarming picture at the ecosystem and species levels as social and ecological resilience would be disrupted. It warns that the predictions show more extreme events taking place, with increasing imbalances in ecosystem functions resulting in more acute societal vulnerability.
