KARACHI – Despite a slightly improved global outlook, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised downward Pakistan’s economic growth forecast to two percent for the current fiscal year, down from its previous estimate of 2.5 percent in October.
The IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook (WEO) report, released on Tuesday, also slightly adjusted the growth forecast for the next fiscal year to 3.5 percent, down by 0.1 percent.
These revised estimates stem from the IMF’s recent detailed quarterly review of Pakistan’s macroeconomic position as part of the ongoing $3 billion Standby Arrangement (SBA), scheduled to conclude in March.
While the IMF’s growth projection is notably lower than the government’s 3.5 percent GDP growth target for the current year, it aligns closely with the State Bank of Pakistan’s forecast range of 2 percent to 3 percent, as announced in the recent monetary policy statement.
In its WEO report, the IMF raised the global growth rate for 2024 to 3.1 percent, up by 0.2 percent from its previous forecast of 2.9 percent. This adjustment reflects greater-than-expected resilience in the United States, China, and other large emerging market and developing economies.
However, despite this modest improvement, the IMF cautioned that global growth for both 2024 and 2025 remains below the historical average. Elevated central bank policy rates to combat inflation, reduced fiscal support amid high debt levels, and sluggish productivity growth were cited as factors contributing to this trend.
