Before the Pakistan v South Africa match, this question looms in our minds.
YES! It is still mathematically possible for Pakistan to make it to the Semis provided the following hold true:
1. Pakistan wins all their remaining matches
2. India defeats England
3. England wins against ONLY ONE of either New Zealand or Australia
4. No further washouts happen
In the workings below, I have incorporated my comments where I feel the result is plausible and in line with the teams’ current performances. The GREEN highlighted matches are where the result is CRUCIAL for Pakistan’s qualification. The AMBER highlighted matches are those where the result of that particular match is irrelevant to Pakistan’s qualification PROVIDED ALL OTHER MATCHES PLAY AS PROJECTED. The UNHIGHLIGHTED matches are both England’s where England must win ONLY ONE of them, AND if they win both, then England will qualify instead of Pakistan. If the tournament plays out as shown in these projections, then NRR will become irrelevant to Pakistan’s qualification as no teams in the Top 5 would end up with the same number of points.
IMPORTANT CAVEAT:
If Sri Lanka gets a victory against BOTH West Indies and India, PROVIDED ALL ELSE PLAYS OUT AS PROJECTED, then Sri Lanka would make the Top 4 edging out Pakistan and England.
