KARACHI — Pakistani experts have dismissed the reports that Karachi will submerge completely in the sea in the next 39 years.
According to an international claim, Karachi would submerge in the Arabian Sea in four decades due to negative effects of climate change. However, Pakistani experts say the claim is not backed by any scientific evidence.
The British High Commission in Islamabad said on Saturday Pakistan’s seaside metropolis would submerge completely by 2060 if the current trajectory of rising sea levels continues.
Quoting experts, the high commission said Pakistan was the eighth most vulnerable country in the world to climate change, adding that rising temperatures would cut down 36 percent of glaciers in the Hindu Kush and Himalayan mountain ranges.
The high commission said it was a critical situation for Pakistan that required immediate action.
Admitting that climate change was an urgent issue with serious implications for Karachi, Pakistani officials and experts said the statement that the city would soon be submerged was exaggerated and lacked scientific evidence.
“This claim has no scientific proof and it does not offer any reason why Karachi will get submerged in the sea,” says Ameer Haider Laghari, director of the meteorological department.
He challenged the claim that sea level along the Karachi coast was on the rise.
“If anything, we have witnessed in the last few decades that sea level near Karachi has gone down,” he maintained.
Leghari however said the risk of a tsunami in Karachi could not be ruled out due to the presence of three seismic plates in the region, though he said even such a high tide was not likely to sink the city.
The World Meteorological Organization, a UN body on weather, climate and water, said in its State of Climate Report 2021 that the rate of global sea level rise had “more than doubled to a record high”.
It noted an increase of 4.4 millimeters per year from 2013 to 2021, saying it was “mainly due to melting glaciers and ice sheets.”
If this trend continues, it added, it would have profound implications for everyone in the world.
However, environment expert Dr Shahid Amjad said the high commission’s claim seemed “far-fetched” given the current level of sea in the south of Karachi.
“As per the available data of the last 100 years, the sea level rise is two millimeters per annum. If water continues to rise at the same rate, it will be 120 millimeters in the next 60 years which is just 12 centimeters,” he explained, adding the sea erosion coupled with rising temperatures could cause sea expansion in Pakistan’s coastal areas.
“But Karachi is unlikely to be impacted,” he added.
