ISLAMABAD – Known for its competence and articulated assessment, a report by top US intelligence agencies predicting Pakistan would be a failed state by 2015 proved to be inaccurate as Pakistan propelled out of severe economic recession and regional instability, whereas the US is the one that is faced with declining growth.
In February 2005, an Indian daily ‘The Hindu’ published a Global Futures Assessment Report jointly formulated by U.S. National Intelligence Council (NIC) and the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), suggesting that ‘by the year 2015 Pakistan would be a failed state, ripe with civil war, bloodshed, inter-provincial rivalries and a struggle for control of its nuclear weapons and complete Talibanisation.’
What adds insult to the injury of Indian press as well as US agencies is the fact that Pakistan, despite facing repeated blows in varied fields ranging from economic crises to regional turmoil, managed to successfully overcome hurdles and is well on its way to progress in 2017 – two years after the report’s timeline.
The report was also quoted by former Pakistan High Commissioner to the United Kingdom, Wajid Shamsul Hasan, in one of his articles.
“Pakistan will not recover easily from decades of political and economic mismanagement, divisive policies, lawlessness, corruption and ethnic friction,” said the report.
The report also forecasted a ‘Yugoslavia-like fate’ for Pakistan. As a matter of fact, the international community is keen to join multi-billion dollars China-Pakistan Economic Corridor that is trumpeting the arrival of an era of development and wide-spread progress.
Ever since the report was published in 2005, Indian press and civil society used it as a tool to mock Pakistan. Indian media was left red-faced after Pakistan achieved several accomplishments in the years following 2005. Now in 2017, the country is heading towards becoming an economic giant in the South-Asian region, despite all odds.
According to ‘Fund for Peace’, Pakistan ranks at No. 14 in fragile state index and is no longer counted among the countries included in the ‘High Alert’ list. Most importantly, Operation Zarb-e-Azb has resulted in the eradication of terrorists and Taliban insurgents, which the miscalculated report had suggested would gain control of the country by 2015.
On the other hand, world superpower US is in dire straits in terms of its economy and foreign policy. With Donald Trump gearing up to take office, it seems that his racist ideologies and irrational thoughts will only make things worse.